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Gustafson
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10,625 Posts
Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Anyone else seeing a slowdown at work? I have been with my current company for almost 6 years and this is the first time they've done layoffs since I've been here.

Management said this year will be slow until Christmas, and then we should be good through 2023. Hopefully that's the case, because it sure is unsettling to see all these people let go and the shop floor bare with the lights off.
 

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I have a friend who owns a commercial construction company. He mentioned that he has lowered is costs to be competitive to get the work. He has noticed a 10 percent decrease in business this same time last year.
As a self employed painter I am busy. I do work solo and have all the work I can handle. I am booked out till October. If I land the project I am bidding now I will be busy through most of the winter and into the spring.
it does concern me that they keep talking about us moving towards a recession and the government trying to slow the economy all while inflation is at a 40 year high. Biden beat out Carter as the worst president. I remember double digit interest rates and gas shortages at stations.
 

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Gustafson
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10,625 Posts
Discussion Starter · #4 ·
I have a friend who owns a commercial construction company. He mentioned that he has lowered is costs to be competitive to get the work. He has noticed a 10 percent decrease in business this same time last year.
As a self employed painter I am busy. I do work solo and have all the work I can handle. I am booked out till October. If I land the project I am bidding now I will be busy through most of the winter and into the spring.
it does concern me that they keep talking about us moving towards a recession and the government trying to slow the economy all while inflation is at a 40 year high. Biden beat out Carter as the worst president. I remember double digit interest rates and gas shortages at stations.
They were talking on the news last night about food shortages globally and what that would mean for the US.

Seems the new (old) idea of farm to table could become somewhat the new norm.... You eat what is grown where you live when it's in season....
 

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F-U-CANCER!!!
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5,953 Posts
The shit storm is brewing. It is unavoidable at this point. Stupid pricing, inflation and spending is going to take its tole. Best plan anyone can make is to prepare and try to think of ways to benefit from the majorities failing....
 

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Project Antitube
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1,246 Posts
Food shortages technically started two years ago, that's why many South American countries banned exports for several months... to force price stability internally so people would store more inside the country instead of sending it out the door for a profit. We are seeing more of that.

However bad you think it is right now, it's way worse everywhere else.

Get used to the violence and larceny/burglary. When people have nothing to lose, their risk calculations get all awry.
 

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I'll Direc your TV
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9,250 Posts
Agree, it is still going to get worse. Most of us knew this 2 years ago, it's just taking this long for everyone else to catch up.
 

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The minute I saw those ships stacked up in the harbors in March 2020 we started getting ready for this.

It's what drove our freezer purchases, our coop memberships, our biofuel processor build, etc etc.

My millennial neighbors are learning about purchasing at peak price with easy credit now... They paid 4x what the previous owner of their home paid... Had their Carvana car repossessed last night... And peoples heat bills are going to be not fun this winter.

Car Automotive parking light Tire Wheel Vehicle
 

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I'll Direc your TV
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9,250 Posts
The minute I saw those ships stacked up in the harbors in March 2020 we started getting ready for this.

It's what drove our freezer purchases, our coop memberships, our biofuel processor build, etc etc.

My millennial neighbors are learning about purchasing at peak price with easy credit now... They paid 4x what the previous owner of their home paid... Had their Carvana car repossessed last night... And peoples heat bills are going to be not fun this winter.
We plan to use our fireplace a lot more this year, not that we hardly used it before, but just in general. I need to get the blower working as well.
 
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I'm not old, honest...
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31,062 Posts
From a business standpoint, our business is booming with record sales and backlog so my job is secure for the foreseeable future. But in general, I am concerned. I've been telling my wife for years that I want to install a wood stove. Problem is I don't have a good location for it.
 

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Yooper In Training
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7,571 Posts
I work in a very niche market (some OEM and mostly aftermarket offroad parts and vehicles)and we're still slammed. Part of that is the benefit of a small team that's constantly got more on our plates than we can handle, so even when things are slow we've still got full days of work to do. Peoples' discretionary spending will probably drop more than it already has, so sales will do the same, but we've also got things in the pipeline elsewhere to help offset that. I recognize the volatility of this industry going into a recession but there are some very savvy people making some very smart decisions at the top, so hopefully we'll ride out whatever wave is coming relatively unscathed.

On a personal level, I live in the sticks with a 2008-era house payment that's lower than what lots of people pay monthly for new vehicles. We never have more than 1 car payment at a time. Freezer downstairs is stocked reasonably well, but I do need to re-up the beef supply sooner than later. I heat 90% with wood and have enough logs piled out back to get me through several heating seasons and an infinite supply of additional free deadfall. Still working from home 60-80% of the time so the gas prices aren't hitting me as hard as they normally would. Looking at getting a new-to-us used fun and mostly practical vehicle for my wife soon. This situation makes me feel stupid doing that, but selling her current ride will pay off my truck and we'll still just have a single payment. Got enough savings to support us for quite some time should sh1t really hit the fan, but we hope to not need to dip into that. I haven't checked my 401k in a while because I don't want to cry, but I keep contributions high regardless of the market, so what I'm buying in at these low levels should offset the losses once things eventually bounce back.
 
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My bro put a pellet burner in his garage and uses duct to heat his house with it. Does a damn good job, but does not heat it all 100%, still has to use a little gas.
Outdoor boilers are sweet if you don't care about the epa or new in 2020 laws that effectively banned them unless they meet efficiency standards that are way out of reach unless you are on no budget constraints...... you can get them on the commercial side, you know, to heat your office space your business rents from your household, just because the boiler is big enough to heat the rest of the housen you might as well use it!

From a business standpoint, our business is booming with record sales and backlog so my job is secure for the foreseeable future. But in general, I am concerned. I've been telling my wife for years that I want to install a wood stove. Problem is I don't have a good location for it.
 

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Business side, we're good for all of 2023. I'm getting aggressive with bidding, there were 2 contractors in 2021 to retire and close the doors, and now I'm hearing about 2 more that are trying to sell out so they can retire. I could be in a good position if i don't fuck up too many projects bidding wrong with this up and down market we seem to have.
Home side, if the prices keep going up, we will be cutting back on even more. Which means my trail truck will be put on the back back back burner for a while. That will piss me off more than you know..
We will have a decent garden next season and our chickens lay plenty of eggs, we're going to get meat birds soon as well. My dad has standing beef, about 8 head now and at least 2 more on the way. I can get one or two from him any time i want to start growing my own. Pigs are easy and i have plenty of room for all of it if need be... my wife just doesn't want the extra chores, but if we have to I'll just bring it home and she can deal with her anger over it lol
I have been saying for years now that everyone needed to prepare for a bad recession, maybe even depression like seeing the interest rates go up, and i got laughed at. I was told the economy was too good to fail, i his the terrible joke is on them now.
 

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Project Antitube
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1,246 Posts
I am probably the least prepared I have been in my entire life.

At work I have a secure, but boring, job. I've considered making some moves but I'm pretty much tapped out as far as pay-for-least-amount-of-work goes.

I haven't bought gas for anything except my truck since March. It needs premium for towing or it sounds like a popcorn machine. I don't store much premium. We can make it until September at our current burn rate. I mostly work from home, the wife has to go to work. I usually take her Equinox unless I need my truck for something. I was hoping gas prices would fall by the end of this month due to inflation crippling vacation plans and causing all those $15/hr part time jobs to go unfilled. Nobody is going to show up for a 4 hour shift $15/hr job if it costs them $20 in gas to get there. I usually keep about 500 gallons on hand. We only have about 150 gallons of diesel left. Normally I fill that up in the late spring after planting season is done and the fuel haulers are looking for money. Didn't happen this year.

We usually have about 18 months of palatable food on hand, more if you include the shit I don't want to eat. Basically we run a long pantry, using items up about the time they expire or "best by" date. It has saved our bacon many times with product recalls. Other people go blind or die or their pets die before we even get to using it. I haven't really bought much in the way for groceries that isn't related to perishables since before Vlad went nuttier. We are getting low on some stuff we use a lot of. Some of the items we normally eat are up 100% (doubled) since Thanksgiving and some are up 200% (tripled) since this time last year.

A year ago I was buying Purina Layena for $10/bag after coupon last year. It's now $20.

This is the smallest garden we've ever had (I was busy with a bathroom remodel this spring). This is also going to be our worst year for fruit. Fireblight got my pear trees stunted for fruit, some kind of insect is chewing on my apple trees, fucking japanese beetles are in my raspberries, and my peach tree I have left really didn't like the heat we had there for a couple weeks.

I'd been forecasting building materials to plummet this month and used cars to hit the shitter about October. It looks like I was wrong. I watch futures, debt rates, default rates, etc to get a handle on the economy. As someone fascinated with watching first world countries fail, I also watch the foreign markets a little. The USA exports tons of agriculture and intellectual property (aka professional services). So if no one is buying from us that means our dollar is too strong for ag and/or they can't afford technology/services.
 

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Desert Rat
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7,523 Posts
First off, this is the plan for the economy. Welcome to the Green New Deal.
We would not be here if Biden had not strangled the oil industry. Biden said “we would work it out”, this is working it out. And it’s not working.

We burn wood. We don’t turn on the furnace until temps hit freezing. But I have two normal winters of wood stacked and tarped, working on a third (2024). I could have done more garden, but screwed up my knee. I only have one left, (so that is a pretty bit hit).
Trying to juggle finances for a greenhouse. I suck at gardening, but learning, and thinking it’s “the way forward”.
Whole house plus generator is paid for and going in a couple weeks.
The bad part is I‘m retired. There is no overtime on retirement.
My stocks took a 60% hit, my mutual fund lost 12%. If I would have taken my own advice I would have cashed out when Biden canceled Keystone XL. I could have had the barn/shop built, new Kubota and the greenhouse. So be it, now I will ride it out. When they open up oil drilling and turn the spigot on, there will be a rebound.
For now, we got plenty of playground, forest and beach and dune, close to home. Plenty of life-work here, I work the German girl like a rented mule. Other than that “it’s not safe outside the compound”.

I’ve been in this fund for over thirty years.
During Obama, we saw some annual losses of 3%-8%, but nothing like this!

pre Biden
Font Circle Rectangle Number Event


post Biden
 

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Skymaster
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2,547 Posts
I'm a cargo pilot. I fly rush order auto parts and it has slowed down for us over the last couple months. I flew 100 hours in March which is the limit but has drastically tapered off since then. I get a base salary plus mileage when I fly so thankfully I'm not up shits creek when it dies down. My company did get a guaranteed interview program with FedEx so hopefully by this time next year I'll be there. With society's lack of patience, air freight demand continues to increase.
 

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Mr. Special Snowflake.
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We've been up an down for the past couple of years, going from interviewing for positions on expected new projects, to not getting those projects and worrying if there's enough work on the few small projects to keep us working, and back again almost monthly at times. Fortunately right now I'm on a fairly large long term project. It's nothing new for me. I've been doing what I do (design) for over 30 years now and there's always been periods of ups and downs. The sky is not falling.
 

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Gustafson
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10,625 Posts
Discussion Starter · #20 ·
I'm a cargo pilot. I fly rush order auto parts and it has slowed down for us over the last couple months. I flew 100 hours in March which is the limit but has drastically tapered off since then. I get a base salary plus mileage when I fly so thankfully I'm not up shits creek when it dies down. My company did get a guaranteed interview program with FedEx so hopefully by this time next year I'll be there. With society's lack of patience, air freight demand continues to increase.
That's a pretty cool job! Hopefully all goes well with FedEx.
 
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