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· I'm not old, honest...
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I believe it's serious. Panic serious, no but never the less, serious. The fatality rate appears to be higher than the typical flu by a factor of 10. Still pretty small numbers but bigger. I believe the greater problem is the rate of expansion once it hits an area. The emergency centers aren't prepared for how quickly it can spread. This is why attempting to slow it down and widen out the bell curve makes sense.

For those skeptics who say it is all media and the dems trying to destroy Trump, there are billions of dollars being lost over this. None of these big companies, pro sports or NCAA sports are shutting down just to fuck Trump. Nor is Trump closing the border because he is afraid of the dems. Not to mention the stories coming out of Italy.

It's serious and may very well be being over hyped. The difficult problem is - what if it's not? It's far better to be over cautious and say OOPS than watch the population die and say OOPS.
 

· I'm not old, honest...
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I think it really reiterates the inevitability of the whole thing. We're talking about a highly contagious airborne virus. Even wearing masks (and the right masks at that) will only delay the spread. However, delaying the spike in cases is what will aid our healthcare system in dealing with it.

We're up to twelve cases in Michigan but there's no doubt that there are likely hundreds, if not thousands, more that are not and to get tested due to not meeting the CDCs guidelines. The amount of tests we have done as a country is abysmal comparatively. Expect this to get much worse before it gets better.

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Yep and that's why it's serious.

Not true. Have you heard about Jesus?
Please just STOP. This is a medical discussion, not political or religious.
 

· I'm not old, honest...
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There’s no test kits. You have to hit certain criteria to be tested so many people could have it. The government sure shit the bed on this one. This will define trumps presidency on how it turns out


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I don't buy that at all. This thing wasn't on anyone's radar 3 months ago, now it's shutting down the entire planet. How can anyone plan for that? I think Trump has done a decent job up to this point, trying to keep people calm and giving daily updates and reacting as new data unfolds.
 

· I'm not old, honest...
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31,414 Posts
I've been looking at a lot of different data and I still can't see where the numbers justify the panic.

Over the past 10 years, the flu kills between 300,000 to 600,000 Americans annually. So round it to 1/2 million for talking sake. Reading an article from Feb 11, https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year the estimate for flu deaths this season is around 12,000 deaths and a quarter million people hospitalized in the United States ALONE.

Now look at this virus that has been around since December - so only a couple months after the flu season started. Only 255,000 cases WORLD WIDE and only 10,500 deaths WORLD WIDE. The whole world has less cases and deaths than we have flu related in the U.S. alone.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


Be cautious - yes
Good hygiene - yes
Stay healthy - yes

Shut down the world economy and bankrupt small business's - Hell NO
 

· I'm not old, honest...
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31,414 Posts
Problem is, you're looking at numbers that include a lot of precautionary actions and shutdowns in order to keep the numbers as low as they are. Actions that aren't needed for the flu, partly due to the virus itself and partly to the treatments and preventions we have in place. It's not an apples to apples statistic, not even close. This one is new and it's way worse. We don't have a vaccine or any validated treatments. The infection rate and contagion level is way higher than flu. The symptoms are worse and the death rate is 10x that of the flu. So it's easier to get, harder to treat, and more deadly when you do get it. The only tool we have to deal with it currently is isolation and prevention. If it works, the numbers will stay low and look like we overreacted, but in reality that will mean the measures did exactly what they were supposed to. You can't just look at the numbers alone and ignore all the ways we got to those numbers. Take away the actions that were done to keep numbers low and you can probably add at least one decimal place to the infection and death rates. Realistically, probably several decimal places since the exponential growth curve would continue unhindered if no measures were taken.
You may be right but "so far" the numbers don't support it. As the actual known number of cases has become larger, the mortality rate has dropped. I don't think it currently sits at 10x higher than the flu. There is a lot of information out there to support that this has been in the United States far longer than first thought, and more wide spread. Lots of stories from people about having the worst flu ever that the doctors told them was not flu, nor did they know what it was. Yes there is no current vaccine. With luck the Malaria treatment will prove out to be a good fix.

At least someone understands.
Oh, I fully "understand" what he said and it MAY be 100% correct. But you guys who usually spout off statistics have reverted to speculation. You can not show me any current data that supports the current hysteria. Many of us may lose our jobs, homes and life savings. Many small business's will go bankrupt. When comparing the current numbers to those who die of Opiods, alcoholism, flu, gunshot, etc - it's crazy.
 

· I'm not old, honest...
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31,414 Posts
Oh I'm not saying all the hysteria and panic is warranted, but it seems like some of the stuff like social isolation may be. I think doing some reasonable stuff earlier could have had much more effective results than the much more extreme measures I expect we're going to have to take in the very near future. Pay a little early or pay a lot late. Other countries like China and South Korea have already proven that. Exponential growth is some scary shit. It's a helluva lot easier and quicker to treat and stop the spread of 1,000 cases than 1,000,000 or 10,000,000.

There's a lot of stupid stuff going on right now without question, like hoarding toilet paper. There are also a lot of unknowns, I agree there. But using the numbers like Jim did to try and prove anything is irrelevant info. It's not a fair comparison. There are too many variables at play, including some we may never know the answers to. But when measures are being taken worldwide to slow the spread and there are STILL thousands of people dying from it and increasing exponentially, it's not something to dismiss because the numbers are still relatively low right now. Like that fancy 401k we're all so fond of. Put in a little early and it turns into a lot later, right? Compound interest. Contagions work the same way, except instead of 30 years it's 30 days.

Yes, number of cases will go up drastically because testing has gone up drastically. But it's already proven that it will continue to go up at a steeper and steeper rate if we don't do anything to dam the flood. Like staying away from each other to eliminate available hosts.

There's a lot we could be learning from other countries that are weeks ahead of us in the cycle that we could be taking advantage of to lesson the economic and societal impacts of it all. Instead it seems like we're dismissing most of them and reacting too little too late because "ThIs Is 'MuRiCa, It WoN't HaPpEn HeRe"
We are closer to being on the same page with this ^^^^^. I'm just comparing the data that we currently have. I fully agree with self isolation but I don't support mandated government shut down, which has been happening, and the rumor mills are that it's about to get worse. I look around and realize that this may take years - possibly years beyond my lifetime, to recover from the economic collapse that is possible. All for something that "currently" is not supported by numbers.

Am I scoffing at it? No.
Do I think we should shut down everything? Also No.
 

· I'm not old, honest...
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31,414 Posts
You have an extra zero in your flu death rate, and I read an article that suggested that that number is over inflated.
Umm I don't think so (from that article)
that at least 12,000 people have died from influenza between Oct. 1, 2019 through Feb. 1, 2020,

Is it over inflated? Maybe. I've looked at a dozen different sites. Numbers vary but not by much.

The point is, currently world wide, Covid 19 has infected less people and killed less people than influenza has in the United States.

Will it skyrocket as predicted? I don't know....... and I don't believe anyone else does either.
 

· I'm not old, honest...
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I live with a PA that doesn't worry about anything. She reads from medical journals and websites for for medical professionals. She's worried. That's all I really need to know. The statistics are all available in medical jargon. The statistics out of France show that it's not at all limited to old people. It's the shear number of infections and what's required to recover that is killing people. Ask Italy, ask France. Medical professionals don't like to have to choose who lives and dies in the admitting room and that's what this is doing in places not locked down. Speculate all you want but how many times in your lifetime as the world taken anything this serious? How many times has the US shut down knowing full well what it's going to do to the economy and peoples lives? Give people in the gov't a little credit, it's not like they didn't weigh the options. Sometimes it is speculation, sometimes it's real. Seems pretty real doesn't it? :beer:
Bingo. Speculation and doubt would be reasonable if we didn't have a considerable portion of the rest of the planet already way ahead of us in this thing. We're not the first here, we have every opportunity to attack this early, but for the most part we're dropping the ball.
Or the NWO just decided to make their move :teehee:

So much for Whitmer saying no lock down, the hospital my wife is at was just told to prepare for a 2 week lock down like NY just did. It's wait and see now I guess.
Which is why I've said to many people that there is something they are not telling us .......... as the "published" numbers don't add up.
 

· I'm not old, honest...
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31,414 Posts
I understand the numbers.
I understand exponential growth.
I understand the risk.

Everything published is based on known cases. Or in the case of the article posted by bbaXJ, a prediction of unknown cases, which means they are also predictions.

Is it worth destroying the global economy for years to come? Time will tell....................

And yes, we are taking all precautions we can. Don't let me misrepresent - I am not ignoring this. I'm just trying to understand it.
 

· I'm not old, honest...
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Jesus Christ would you guys PLEASE do some research on exponential growth? THIS IS NOT LINEAR. The math you guys are using is royally and completely fucked. Sorry but I don't know any other way to put it. You're both smarter than this and you've shown it before.


Just read this please. It's got a tremendous amount of useful info.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coro...urce=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
That article is good because it's compiled well. Lots of bits and pieces out there that is hard to package.

Just thought I would remind you that I was one of the first who said it was potentially serious. I still think it is. The hard part is to quantify "HOW" serious it is. My suspicion is that said and done, we will look back at it and say it was bad, but not as bad as predicted.


I believe it's serious. Panic serious, no but never the less, serious. The fatality rate appears to be higher than the typical flu by a factor of 10. Still pretty small numbers but bigger. I believe the greater problem is the rate of expansion once it hits an area. The emergency centers aren't prepared for how quickly it can spread. This is why attempting to slow it down and widen out the bell curve makes sense.

For those skeptics who say it is all media and the dems trying to destroy Trump, there are billions of dollars being lost over this. None of these big companies, pro sports or NCAA sports are shutting down just to fuck Trump. Nor is Trump closing the border because he is afraid of the dems. Not to mention the stories coming out of Italy.

It's serious and may very well be being over hyped. The difficult problem is - what if it's not? It's far better to be over cautious and say OOPS than watch the population die and say OOPS.
 
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