[brewmenn]

I believe it's serious. Panic serious, no but never the less, serious. The fatality rate appears to be higher than the typical flu by a factor of 10. Still pretty small numbers but bigger. I believe the greater problem is the rate of expansion once it hits an area. The emergency centers aren't prepared for how quickly it can spread. This is why attempting to slow it down and widen out the bell curve makes sense.

For those skeptics who say it is all media and the dems trying to destroy Trump, there are billions of dollars being lost over this. None of these big companies, pro sports or NCAA sports are shutting down just to fuck Trump. Nor is Trump closing the border because he is afraid of the dems. Not to mention the stories coming out of Italy.

It's serious and may very well be being over hyped. The difficult problem is - what if it's not? It's far better to be over cautious and say OOPS than watch the population die and say OOPS.

I agree.

And it's no comfort that only old or health problems that at much risk, as I and many people I know fall into those categories.

 

[brewmenn]

Why does everything you say have to be politically motivated ? You are such a one trick pony, and for the record Bernie is a idiot so don’t lump me into that group like ya love to do


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Not just that, he's a Dog faced lying one trick pony solider.

 

[brewmenn]

It’s just our centennial plague 1720 was the marseille outbreak 1820 was cholera 1920 was the bubonic plague 2020 is the coronavirus Seems like every hundred years is a thinning of the herd plague

Actually 1920 (1918-1920) was the spanish flu.

 

[brewmenn]

I seen that one but when I was reading about it on one of the other forums this is what was said “ The Galveston Plague of 1920. While Ebola is the most recent incredibly unexpected disease to show up in Texas, it isn't anywhere near the most deadly. Long before anyone even knew Ebola existed, the city of Galveston grappled with an outbreak of bubonic plague“

It killed dozens of people in Galveston. The Spanish flu killed dozens of millions of people world wide.

 

[brewmenn]

I don't buy that at all. This thing wasn't on anyone's radar 3 months ago, now it's shutting down the entire planet. How can anyone plan for that? I think Trump has done a decent job up to this point, trying to keep people calm and giving daily updates and reacting as new data unfolds.

He's said some stupid things trying to calm people but coming off as out of touch, and he apparently did shut down some departments that could have gotten a just on dealing with this. But this is a time for putting politics aside and doing what we need to do to get through this and keep people save. I think Trump understands that and is doing that. This is not the time to judge Trump, but that time will come, on November 3rd. Trump is not my first choice as president to go through something like this with, but I don't think Biden is either.

 

[brewmenn]

As a former smoker and someone with heart issues I agree 100%.

As a diabetic and having a lifelong smoker as a "lady friend" I agree.

 

[brewmenn]

So question is?

What does trump do with the manufacturing of drugs in China besides almost everything else we use on a daily basis?
Trump has encouraged some manufacturers to return here. This country is almost at the mercy of China for the production of vital medial drugs and products that help keep us alive. If they decide to stop selling to us of manufacture for us, we are screwed.

Who's bright idea was this to enrich our enemy and communist country?

Greedy capitalists who decided making a few extra buck was worth the risks.

 

[brewmenn]

I've been looking at a lot of different data and I still can't see where the numbers justify the panic.

Over the past 10 years, the flu kills between 300,000 to 600,000 Americans annually. So round it to 1/2 million for talking sake. Reading an article from Feb 11, https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year the estimate for flu deaths this season is around 12,000 deaths and a quarter million people hospitalized in the United States ALONE.

Now look at this virus that has been around since December - so only a couple months after the flu season started. Only 255,000 cases WORLD WIDE and only 10,500 deaths WORLD WIDE. The whole world has less cases and deaths than we have flu related in the U.S. alone.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


Be cautious - yes
Good hygiene - yes
Stay healthy - yes

Shut down the world economy and bankrupt small business's - Hell NO

You have an extra zero in your flu death rate, and I read an article that suggested that that number is over inflated.

 

[brewmenn]

Umm I don't think so (from that article)
that at least 12,000 people have died from influenza between Oct. 1, 2019 through Feb. 1, 2020,

Is it over inflated? Maybe. I've looked at a dozen different sites. Numbers vary but not by much.

The point is, currently world wide, Covid 19 has infected less people and killed less people than influenza has in the United States.

Will it skyrocket as predicted? I don't know....... and I don't believe anyone else does either.

Right, 12,000 in 4 months would by 36,000 per year, not 300,000 - 600,000.

 

[brewmenn]

Jesus Christ would you guys PLEASE do some research on exponential growth? THIS IS NOT LINEAR. The math you guys are using is royally and completely fucked. Sorry but I don't know any other way to put it. You're both smarter than this and you've shown it before.

It's doubled in the US just in the past 2 days. Yes, some of that is due to increased testing, but that ultimately has minimal impact on the trend as a whole, it's a momentary upward blip in a continuing upward trend, getting steeper by the hour. Let's be conservative and say 1 carrier gives it to 2 people even though by all accounts that's much lower than the reality with this. We'll start with rough numbers from today: 10k known infected cases. Tomorrow that's 20k. Sunday: 40k. Monday: 80k. Tuesday: 160k. Wednesday: 320k. Thursday: 640k. Friday: 1.28million. Saturday: 2.56million. Sunday: 5.12million. Monday: 10.24million. Tuesday: 20.48million. Wednesday: 40.96million.
Now in reality the known cases is drastically lower than the real number of cases. But I'll stick with known numbers. So in 1.5 weeks with no actions we're talking 40 million infected and climbing steeply by the day. Worldwide average mortality rate is hovering just over 4% and seems to be in roughly the 2 week period from infection, maybe a little more. That's 1.6million dead in the US alone in 3.5-4 weeks, and it's still climbing very sharply from there. And that doesn't take into account additional fallout and deaths from lack of medical care, hospital beds, supplies, ventilators, etc. WE NEED TO ISOLATE. WE NEED TO TAKE AWAY THE HOSTS FOR THIS TO SPREAD TO. WE ARE ALL DIRECTLY IN THE LINE OF FIRE. I'm not one to freak out about this stuff, but this is something everybody should be taking very, very seriously. This isn't the end of the world, but it's going to change the world and the way we all look at it.

The numbers above are if we do nothing. We're already doing some, obviously, and I'm very happy we are. But it's not nearly enough, and we've got statistical data from lots of other countries to prove it.

Just read this please. It's got a tremendous amount of useful info.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coro...urce=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

I was merely responding to point out the error in Whiterhino's post. I agree with you 100% and understand the numbers.

 

[brewmenn]

Facts and numbers.

https://www.justfactsdaily.com/vita...oaM8muSH2TbUx7WFccXCSN0yEqJ3abhCejCZKJxt9FcSg

Accurate "facts and numbers", but what this and other articles like it leave out is the exponential grow.
it says;

if the number of people with active Covid-19 infections is actually 10 times the number of people who have been diagnosed with it, the average American would have to meet 2,200 people to come in contact with one person who has it.

What it leaves out is that at the current rate of growth there will be 10 times the number of people currently diagnosed with it in under 10 days, 100 time in 20 days, and it keeps going up by 10 times every 10 days until so many are infected that it can't spread any more.

 

[brewmenn]

Thanks for sharing.
Michigan seems to be doing ok for the most part. I'm hoping that we contain ourselves and not spread it around. Three counties seem to be hit hardest are the 3 most populated. By following guidelines in place we should be in the clear in a few weeks?

The reason I asked about China using this as an attack is because of how( I heard) they did not share with the WHO that they had a problem and refused help when asked if they could come in and offer assistance in combating this virus.
I also read that this virus first showed itself in October and still allowed their citizens to travel abroad.
Just seems kind fishy. Trump imposing sanctions and playing hardball with them. Something that other presidents never did.

I wouldn't say that having the 5th highest number of cases in the country is "doing ok".

And I agree that China may have been reckless in their handling this, but I don't think it was done to attack the world.

 

[brewmenn]

I went to work and picked up the rest of my computer equipment this morning. We are now strictly work from home. This is now mission control.

 

[brewmenn]

I went to a giant eagle grocery store tonight and the amount of disinfectant wipes and nitrile gloves in the parking lot and exit of lot is fawking ridiculous, damn trashy ass people wonder why the world is going to hell in a hand basket.


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I notice the same at stores near me.

 

[brewmenn]

It’s weird.
I only get calls from people I actually know now.
Robocalls, car warranty, recall and general nuisance calls have dropped off all together.
I like my phone again.

I still get those. And if it wasn't for those I wouldn't know what my phone sounds like. No one I know calls me.

 

[brewmenn]

My only worry about this 'triage testing" is it skews the statistics, if you're only testing those you're are pretty sure their sick, then it drives that death rate number up when people who show minor symptoms are never tested

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Right now we need to concentrate on now is using our resources to stop this thing and save lives. The time to worry about statistics is when it's all over.

 

[brewmenn]

This is very good news.

 

[brewmenn]

What state/area is this for?

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For USA.

 

[brewmenn]

United States is over 175K cases. The numbers there don't really indicate exactly what area is being displayed

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It's for USA, and is showing new cases per day. What it means is that the growth is no longer exponential.

 

[brewmenn]

Numbers won’t mean anything for another 2 weeks. Right now there simply isn’t enough data.

Look at Michigan deaths. Sat / Sun they kinda flat lined. Then yesterday we had our single highest day. Give it time ....

I've become a little too obsessed with watching the numbers I wish I could just turn it off but I'm working from home so I'm always on the computer.

I've noticed that you can't trust numbers from a single day. I assume it's because some places don't report every day.