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Old March 20th, 2020, 08:50 AM   #121
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Greedy capitalists who decided making a few extra buck was worth the risks.
Only after the politicians made it favorable business-wise to do so. They are all at fault.
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Old March 20th, 2020, 09:31 AM   #122
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I've been looking at a lot of different data and I still can't see where the numbers justify the panic.

Over the past 10 years, the flu kills between 300,000 to 600,000 Americans annually. So round it to 1/2 million for talking sake. Reading an article from Feb 11, https://www.health.com/condition/col...flu-every-year the estimate for flu deaths this season is around 12,000 deaths and a quarter million people hospitalized in the United States ALONE.

Now look at this virus that has been around since December - so only a couple months after the flu season started. Only 255,000 cases WORLD WIDE and only 10,500 deaths WORLD WIDE. The whole world has less cases and deaths than we have flu related in the U.S. alone.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


Be cautious - yes
Good hygiene - yes
Stay healthy - yes

Shut down the world economy and bankrupt small business's - Hell NO
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Old March 20th, 2020, 09:36 AM   #123
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Originally Posted by whiterhino View Post
I've been looking at a lot of different data and I still can't see where the numbers justify the panic.

Over the past 10 years, the flu kills between 300,000 to 600,000 Americans annually. So round it to 1/2 million for talking sake. Reading an article from Feb 11, https://www.health.com/condition/col...flu-every-year the estimate for flu deaths this season is around 12,000 deaths and a quarter million people hospitalized in the United States ALONE.

Now look at this virus that has been around since December - so only a couple months after the flu season started. Only 255,000 cases WORLD WIDE and only 10,500 deaths WORLD WIDE. The whole world has less cases and deaths than we have flu related in the U.S. alone.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


Be cautious - yes
Good hygiene - yes
Stay healthy - yes

Shut down the world economy and bankrupt small business's - Hell NO
This has been my wife and I's perspective as well. The only thing I can think of is we are not being told something, that said I don't think Trump or the world is capable of keeping something like this secret
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Old March 20th, 2020, 09:43 AM   #124
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Originally Posted by whiterhino View Post
I've been looking at a lot of different data and I still can't see where the numbers justify the panic.

Over the past 10 years, the flu kills between 300,000 to 600,000 Americans annually. So round it to 1/2 million for talking sake. Reading an article from Feb 11, https://www.health.com/condition/col...flu-every-year the estimate for flu deaths this season is around 12,000 deaths and a quarter million people hospitalized in the United States ALONE.

Now look at this virus that has been around since December - so only a couple months after the flu season started. Only 255,000 cases WORLD WIDE and only 10,500 deaths WORLD WIDE. The whole world has less cases and deaths than we have flu related in the U.S. alone.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


Be cautious - yes
Good hygiene - yes
Stay healthy - yes

Shut down the world economy and bankrupt small business's - Hell NO
Problem is, you're looking at numbers that include a lot of precautionary actions and shutdowns in order to keep the numbers as low as they are. Actions that aren't needed for the flu, partly due to the virus itself and partly to the treatments and preventions we have in place. It's not an apples to apples statistic, not even close. This one is new and it's way worse. We don't have a vaccine or any validated treatments. The infection rate and contagion level is way higher than flu. The symptoms are worse and the death rate is 10x that of the flu. So it's easier to get, harder to treat, and more deadly when you do get it. The only tool we have to deal with it currently is isolation and prevention. If it works, the numbers will stay low and look like we overreacted, but in reality that will mean the measures did exactly what they were supposed to. You can't just look at the numbers alone and ignore all the ways we got to those numbers. Take away the actions that were done to keep numbers low and you can probably add at least one decimal place to the infection and death rates. Realistically, probably several decimal places since the exponential growth curve would continue unhindered if no measures were taken.
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Old March 20th, 2020, 09:51 AM   #125
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Problem is, you're looking at numbers that include a lot of precautionary actions and shutdowns in order to keep the numbers as low as they are. Actions that aren't needed for the flu, partly due to the virus itself and partly to the treatments and preventions we have in place. It's not an apples to apples statistic, not even close. This one is new and it's way worse. We don't have a vaccine or any validated treatments. The infection rate and contagion level is way higher than flu. The symptoms are worse and the death rate is 10x that of the flu. So it's easier to get, harder to treat, and more deadly when you do get it. The only tool we have to deal with it currently is isolation and prevention. If it works, the numbers will stay low and look like we overreacted, but in reality that will mean the measures did exactly what they were supposed to. You can't just look at the numbers alone and ignore all the ways we got to those numbers. Take away the actions that were done to keep numbers low and you can probably add at least one decimal place to the infection and death rates. Realistically, probably several decimal places since the exponential growth curve would continue unhindered if no measures were taken.
At least someone understands.
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Old March 20th, 2020, 10:16 AM   #126
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At least someone understands.
It scares me how many people don't and are making it worse for all of us as a result. Including much of our own goverment. It's a fine line between economic destruction and public health, but we seem to be too far one one side at this point and that'll just destroy both sides further down the line.
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Old March 20th, 2020, 10:23 AM   #127
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Got sent out with the company CC this morning to try to hunt down some cleaning supplies as we can't get them from our vendors anymore. It's crazy how all stores are wiped out on a few things, then randomly wiped out on other things, while other areas are largely untouched.
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Old March 20th, 2020, 10:25 AM   #128
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Problem is, you're looking at numbers that include a lot of precautionary actions and shutdowns in order to keep the numbers as low as they are. Actions that aren't needed for the flu, partly due to the virus itself and partly to the treatments and preventions we have in place. It's not an apples to apples statistic, not even close. This one is new and it's way worse. We don't have a vaccine or any validated treatments. The infection rate and contagion level is way higher than flu. The symptoms are worse and the death rate is 10x that of the flu. So it's easier to get, harder to treat, and more deadly when you do get it. The only tool we have to deal with it currently is isolation and prevention. If it works, the numbers will stay low and look like we overreacted, but in reality that will mean the measures did exactly what they were supposed to. You can't just look at the numbers alone and ignore all the ways we got to those numbers. Take away the actions that were done to keep numbers low and you can probably add at least one decimal place to the infection and death rates. Realistically, probably several decimal places since the exponential growth curve would continue unhindered if no measures were taken.
You may be right but "so far" the numbers don't support it. As the actual known number of cases has become larger, the mortality rate has dropped. I don't think it currently sits at 10x higher than the flu. There is a lot of information out there to support that this has been in the United States far longer than first thought, and more wide spread. Lots of stories from people about having the worst flu ever that the doctors told them was not flu, nor did they know what it was. Yes there is no current vaccine. With luck the Malaria treatment will prove out to be a good fix.

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At least someone understands.
Oh, I fully "understand" what he said and it MAY be 100% correct. But you guys who usually spout off statistics have reverted to speculation. You can not show me any current data that supports the current hysteria. Many of us may lose our jobs, homes and life savings. Many small business's will go bankrupt. When comparing the current numbers to those who die of Opiods, alcoholism, flu, gunshot, etc - it's crazy.
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Old March 20th, 2020, 10:28 AM   #129
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Problem is, you're looking at numbers that include a lot of precautionary actions and shutdowns in order to keep the numbers as low as they are. Actions that aren't needed for the flu, partly due to the virus itself and partly to the treatments and preventions we have in place. It's not an apples to apples statistic, not even close. This one is new and it's way worse. We don't have a vaccine or any validated treatments. The infection rate and contagion level is way higher than flu. The symptoms are worse and the death rate is 10x that of the flu. So it's easier to get, harder to treat, and more deadly when you do get it. The only tool we have to deal with it currently is isolation and prevention. If it works, the numbers will stay low and look like we overreacted, but in reality that will mean the measures did exactly what they were supposed to. You can't just look at the numbers alone and ignore all the ways we got to those numbers. Take away the actions that were done to keep numbers low and you can probably add at least one decimal place to the infection and death rates. Realistically, probably several decimal places since the exponential growth curve would continue unhindered if no measures were taken.
It also could have already been here for months if you want play the "what if" game People don't get that most of the time you DON'T get tested for a virus at the hospital or doctors office, especially with mild symptoms like this has in younger/middle age people. Hell I had an ass kicking sickness in mid-Feb after travelling, it could very well have been this.

The other part is the surge we are seeing, most of those are tests that were taken last Friday, or sent in over the weekend and now we are getting that 'surge' of results.

Most of these tests are done at core labs, this requires shipping, and there is usually a 4 day turn around. The hysteria has created a case for every person wanting a sniffle checked, this has in turn has created delays in getting the viral transport media needed, which in some cases may lead to tests having to be re-done.

I cannot say that what we are doing won't help stop the transmission, because it will, is it a reason to tank the world economy, only history can tell us that. My fear is this will become the norm now.
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Old March 20th, 2020, 10:45 AM   #130
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Oh I'm not saying all the hysteria and panic is warranted, but it seems like some of the stuff like social isolation may be. I think doing some reasonable stuff earlier could have had much more effective results than the much more extreme measures I expect we're going to have to take in the very near future. Pay a little early or pay a lot late. Other countries like China and South Korea have already proven that. Exponential growth is some scary shit. It's a helluva lot easier and quicker to treat and stop the spread of 1,000 cases than 1,000,000 or 10,000,000.

There's a lot of stupid stuff going on right now without question, like hoarding toilet paper. There are also a lot of unknowns, I agree there. But using the numbers like Jim did to try and prove anything is irrelevant info. It's not a fair comparison. There are too many variables at play, including some we may never know the answers to. But when measures are being taken worldwide to slow the spread and there are STILL thousands of people dying from it and increasing exponentially, it's not something to dismiss because the numbers are still relatively low right now. Like that fancy 401k we're all so fond of. Put in a little early and it turns into a lot later, right? Compound interest. Contagions work the same way, except instead of 30 years it's 30 days.

Yes, number of cases will go up drastically because testing has gone up drastically. But it's already proven that it will continue to go up at a steeper and steeper rate if we don't do anything to dam the flood. Like staying away from each other to eliminate available hosts.

There's a lot we could be learning from other countries that are weeks ahead of us in the cycle that we could be taking advantage of to lesson the economic and societal impacts of it all. Instead it seems like we're dismissing most of them and reacting too little too late because "ThIs Is 'MuRiCa, It WoN't HaPpEn HeRe"

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Old March 20th, 2020, 10:54 AM   #131
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Oh I'm not saying all the hysteria and panic is warranted, but it seems like some of the stuff like social isolation may be. I think doing some reasonable stuff earlier could have had much more effective results than the much more extreme measures I expect we're going to have to take in the very near future. Pay a little early or pay a lot late. Other countries like China and South Korea have already proven that. Exponential growth is some scary shit. It's a helluva lot easier and quicker to treat and stop the spread of 1,000 cases than 1,000,000 or 10,000,000.

There's a lot of stupid stuff going on right now without question, like hoarding toilet paper. There are also a lot of unknowns, I agree there. But using the numbers like Jim did to try and prove anything is irrelevant info. It's not a fair comparison. There are too many variables at play, including some we may never know the answers to. But when measures are being taken worldwide to slow the spread and there are STILL thousands of people dying from it and increasing exponentially, it's not something to dismiss because the numbers are still relatively low right now. Like that fancy 401k we're all so fond of. Put in a little early and it turns into a lot later, right? Compound interest. Contagions work the same way, except instead of 30 years it's 30 days.

Yes, number of cases will go up drastically because testing has gone up drastically. But it's already proven that it will continue to go up at a steeper and steeper rate if we don't do anything to dam the flood. Like staying away from each other to eliminate available hosts.

There's a lot we could be learning from other countries that are weeks ahead of us in the cycle that we could be taking advantage of to lesson the economic and societal impacts of it all. Instead it seems like we're dismissing most of them and reacting too little too late because "ThIs Is 'MuRiCa, It WoN't HaPpEn HeRe"
We are closer to being on the same page with this ^^^^^. I'm just comparing the data that we currently have. I fully agree with self isolation but I don't support mandated government shut down, which has been happening, and the rumor mills are that it's about to get worse. I look around and realize that this may take years - possibly years beyond my lifetime, to recover from the economic collapse that is possible. All for something that "currently" is not supported by numbers.

Am I scoffing at it? No.
Do I think we should shut down everything? Also No.
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Old March 20th, 2020, 10:57 AM   #132
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It also could have already been here for months if you want play the "what if" game People don't get that most of the time you DON'T get tested for a virus at the hospital or doctors office, especially with mild symptoms like this has in younger/middle age people. Hell I had an ass kicking sickness in mid-Feb after travelling, it could very well have been this.

The other part is the surge we are seeing, most of those are tests that were taken last Friday, or sent in over the weekend and now we are getting that 'surge' of results.

Most of these tests are done at core labs, this requires shipping, and there is usually a 4 day turn around. The hysteria has created a case for every person wanting a sniffle checked, this has in turn has created delays in getting the viral transport media needed, which in some cases may lead to tests having to be re-done.

I cannot say that what we are doing won't help stop the transmission, because it will, is it a reason to tank the world economy, only history can tell us that. My fear is this will become the norm now.
My wife and I were both very very sick right before Christmas and it lingered for a while. I mean sicker than I can recall in my 36 years on earth. So, you might be right, we could have gotten it then for all we know.
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Old March 20th, 2020, 11:14 AM   #133
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My wife and I were both very very sick right before Christmas and it lingered for a while. I mean sicker than I can recall in my 36 years on earth. So, you might be right, we could have gotten it then for all we know.
This is data that I'd like to see.. who's had it if they can get this stuff going.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...virus-pandemic
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Old March 20th, 2020, 11:18 AM   #134
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I've been looking at a lot of different data and I still can't see where the numbers justify the panic.

Over the past 10 years, the flu kills between 300,000 to 600,000 Americans annually. So round it to 1/2 million for talking sake. Reading an article from Feb 11, https://www.health.com/condition/col...flu-every-year the estimate for flu deaths this season is around 12,000 deaths and a quarter million people hospitalized in the United States ALONE.

Now look at this virus that has been around since December - so only a couple months after the flu season started. Only 255,000 cases WORLD WIDE and only 10,500 deaths WORLD WIDE. The whole world has less cases and deaths than we have flu related in the U.S. alone.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


Be cautious - yes
Good hygiene - yes
Stay healthy - yes

Shut down the world economy and bankrupt small business's - Hell NO
You have an extra zero in your flu death rate, and I read an article that suggested that that number is over inflated.
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Old March 20th, 2020, 11:46 AM   #135
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You have an extra zero in your flu death rate, and I read an article that suggested that that number is over inflated.
Umm I don't think so (from that article)
that at least 12,000 people have died from influenza between Oct. 1, 2019 through Feb. 1, 2020,

Is it over inflated? Maybe. I've looked at a dozen different sites. Numbers vary but not by much.

The point is, currently world wide, Covid 19 has infected less people and killed less people than influenza has in the United States.

Will it skyrocket as predicted? I don't know....... and I don't believe anyone else does either.
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Old March 20th, 2020, 12:03 PM   #136
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Umm I don't think so (from that article)
that at least 12,000 people have died from influenza between Oct. 1, 2019 through Feb. 1, 2020,

Is it over inflated? Maybe. I've looked at a dozen different sites. Numbers vary but not by much.

The point is, currently world wide, Covid 19 has infected less people and killed less people than influenza has in the United States.

Will it skyrocket as predicted? I don't know....... and I don't believe anyone else does either.
12k seems to jive with what I've seen for this year's flu as well, some years being even worse.

I don't agree though with the last statement. There's enough data from trends elsewhere and how they varied before, during, and after varying acts of suppression and prevention to have a pretty strong idea of how things would go if we did little to nothing.
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Old March 20th, 2020, 12:56 PM   #137
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Oh, I fully "understand" what he said and it MAY be 100% correct. But you guys who usually spout off statistics have reverted to speculation.
I live with a PA that doesn't worry about anything. She reads from medical journals and websites for for medical professionals. She's worried. That's all I really need to know. The statistics are all available in medical jargon. The statistics out of France show that it's not at all limited to old people. It's the shear number of infections and what's required to recover that is killing people. Ask Italy, ask France. Medical professionals don't like to have to choose who lives and dies in the admitting room and that's what this is doing in places not locked down. Speculate all you want but how many times in your lifetime as the world taken anything this serious? How many times has the US shut down knowing full well what it's going to do to the economy and peoples lives? Give people in the gov't a little credit, it's not like they didn't weigh the options. Sometimes it is speculation, sometimes it's real. Seems pretty real doesn't it?
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Old March 20th, 2020, 01:29 PM   #138
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I live with a PA that doesn't worry about anything. She reads from medical journals and websites for for medical professionals. She's worried. That's all I really need to know. The statistics are all available in medical jargon. The statistics out of France show that it's not at all limited to old people. It's the shear number of infections and what's required to recover that is killing people. Ask Italy, ask France. Medical professionals don't like to have to choose who lives and dies in the admitting room and that's what this is doing in places not locked down. Speculate all you want but how many times in your lifetime as the world taken anything this serious? How many times has the US shut down knowing full well what it's going to do to the economy and peoples lives? Give people in the gov't a little credit, it's not like they didn't weigh the options. Sometimes it is speculation, sometimes it's real. Seems pretty real doesn't it?
Bingo. Speculation and doubt would be reasonable if we didn't have a considerable portion of the rest of the planet already way ahead of us in this thing. We're not the first here, we have every opportunity to attack this early, but for the most part we're dropping the ball.
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Old March 20th, 2020, 01:40 PM   #139
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Or the NWO just decided to make their move

So much for Whitmer saying no lock down, the hospital my wife is at was just told to prepare for a 2 week lock down like NY just did. It's wait and see now I guess.
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Old March 20th, 2020, 02:00 PM   #140
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I live with a PA that doesn't worry about anything. She reads from medical journals and websites for for medical professionals. She's worried. That's all I really need to know. The statistics are all available in medical jargon. The statistics out of France show that it's not at all limited to old people. It's the shear number of infections and what's required to recover that is killing people. Ask Italy, ask France. Medical professionals don't like to have to choose who lives and dies in the admitting room and that's what this is doing in places not locked down. Speculate all you want but how many times in your lifetime as the world taken anything this serious? How many times has the US shut down knowing full well what it's going to do to the economy and peoples lives? Give people in the gov't a little credit, it's not like they didn't weigh the options. Sometimes it is speculation, sometimes it's real. Seems pretty real doesn't it?
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Bingo. Speculation and doubt would be reasonable if we didn't have a considerable portion of the rest of the planet already way ahead of us in this thing. We're not the first here, we have every opportunity to attack this early, but for the most part we're dropping the ball.
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Or the NWO just decided to make their move

So much for Whitmer saying no lock down, the hospital my wife is at was just told to prepare for a 2 week lock down like NY just did. It's wait and see now I guess.
Which is why I've said to many people that there is something they are not telling us .......... as the "published" numbers don't add up.
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