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Old March 24th, 2020, 12:37 PM   #241
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There are several tests that can be done. By the end of the week my wife will have 3 different instruments that can test for it. I also did read about the home test to see if you have it, but I'm curious on what they are using for the sample.

The biggest issue so far has been core labs do most of the testing, that requires shipping the sample, these labs have been overloaded and turned a normal 4 day turn around into a week or more. There has also been delays in getting viral transport media.

Testing was not done in the past for this, so we will see huge surges not only as it is diagnosed, but as more people are tested. The steep curve will also be affected as more labs gear up and more are tested daily.

It's going to be a serious strain on the hospitals if the projections hit the marks.
And they're still continuing to not test a lot of people. A friend has every single symptom and got so bad she went to the ER on Sunday after being swabbed a few days prior and regular discussions with her doctor. She's slowly getting better now and isn't in one of the high risk categories. She was supposed to have results yesterday but because she's not hospitalized or high-risk they won't even run the test. Same thing they did with Jesse Haines. They don't have enough tests and the labs are overloaded with more critical cases. Between that and mild or asymptomatic people who are staying home, I'd be willing to bet there are already 10x as many cases here as we know about, maybe more.

I get that testing is needed to confirm who has severe cases, how it's spreading, etc, but what then? Nationwide we're still not doing nearly enough to stop or contain this. So we're going to try and flatten the curve to not overwhelm hospitals and still let a huge portion of the population get it, just over a longer time period? This isn't so much a question as venting. I know, I know, they're working on proving out treatment meds and vaccines. And I know it's a balance between containment and economic collapse, but I feel without containment we're still headed for economic collapse anyway because so many places will be closed longer and so many people will be sick and out of work. Basically we're screwed at this point no matter how we do it, and the longer we wait the worse and longer it's going to be. We need harsh, swift, firm containment action, and we needed it a month ago. But most places it's still not here. And they're still not doing it most of the places that could be trying to stay ahead of this. It's just a damn soup sandwich.

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From what I've been hearing it's not the number of cases but the number of deaths we should be paying attention to. Number of cases will continue to go up as we continue to test but "flattening the curve" really relates to those cases requiring hospitalization or death.

Obviously as it's a percentage of the total cases there is a relation, but to expect the number of cases to flatten out is illogical for the current time period
That makes a lot of sense. Although as you said later I'd say number of cases requiring hospitalization is key, not just deaths. Because that's what affects medical capacity and more hospitalizations that overwhelm the system will cause death rates to rise even if the disease's normal fatality rate doesn't rise.

I'm of the school of thought that if your symptoms are mild, not life threatening, and you're not in a high risk group, you should stay home. The labs and medical centers are overwhelmed already and the workers are in harm's way enough already. Going out, exposing more people, and further bogging down the system for a case when they're going to tell you to go home and rest anyway is just a waste of time beyond gathering mostly meaningless statistics. Call it triage testing.

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Old March 24th, 2020, 01:01 PM   #242
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That same doctor predicts 80% of the population will contract the virus. But many will have no symptoms or light symptoms


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Old March 24th, 2020, 01:01 PM   #243
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And they're still continuing to not test a lot of people. A friend has every single symptom and got so bad she went to the ER on Sunday after being swabbed a few days prior and regular discussions with her doctor. She's slowly getting better now and isn't in one of the high risk categories. She was supposed to have results yesterday but because she's not hospitalized or high-risk they won't even run the test. Same thing they did with Jesse Haines. They don't have enough tests and the labs are overloaded with more critical cases. Between that and mild or asymptomatic people who are staying home, I'd be willing to bet there are already 10x as many cases here as we know about, maybe more.

I get that testing is needed to confirm who has severe cases, how it's spreading, etc, but what then? Nationwide we're still not doing nearly enough to stop or contain this. So we're going to try and flatten the curve to not overwhelm hospitals and still let a huge portion of the population get it, just over a longer time period? This isn't so much a question as venting. I know, I know, they're working on proving out treatment meds and vaccines. And I know it's a balance between containment and economic collapse, but I feel without containment we're still headed for economic collapse anyway because so many places will be closed longer and so many people will be sick and out of work. Basically we're screwed at this point no matter how we do it, and the longer we wait the worse and longer it's going to be. We need harsh, swift, firm containment action, and we needed it a month ago. But most places it's still not here. And they're still not doing it most of the places that could be trying to stay ahead of this. It's just a damn soup sandwich.


That makes a lot of sense. Although as you said later I'd say number of cases requiring hospitalization is key, not just deaths. Because that's what affects medical capacity and more hospitalizations that overwhelm the system will cause death rates to rise even if the disease's normal fatality rate doesn't rise.

I'm of the school of thought that if your symptoms are mild, not life threatening, and you're not in a high risk group, you should stay home. The labs and medical centers are overwhelmed already and the workers are in harm's way enough already. Going out, exposing more people, and further bogging down the system for a case when they're going to tell you to go home and rest anyway is just a waste of time beyond gathering mostly meaningless statistics. Call it triage testing.
We are also in the middle of flu season, we also have a pandemic and a society full of hypochondriac's that will suck any drug the TV tells them they need.

Labs are already overloaded as you said, so shall we test every Tom, Dick and Harry that walks in the door with flu symptoms? There are limited numbers of tests, there is a WORLD demand right now. Protocol is to do respiratory panels, and another test before a Covid-19 test is ran in many cases.

To make the number of tests needed, just like anything else production has to be ready and raw material sourced, it all takes time and limits the capacity.

Viruses aren't a 'treat the bug' they are a 'treat the symptom.' We don't have a vaccine, and won't for some time. Unfortunately once you have it there isn't a ton you can do to treat it other than treat the symptoms, if the person gets better without the hospitalization, either they were strong enough, or it wasn't Covid-19. Either way the resources were used where they were actually needed.

Like you said, it is basically triage...

Your friend is getting better without the test, so would it really matter if she was tested?

Not trying to be cold, or an ass, but this whole thing is an "it is what it is scenario" and the only way to really do much is to let it burn out, and by limiting contact with one another is the only way to speed that up.
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Old March 24th, 2020, 01:23 PM   #244
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Originally Posted by jeepfreak81 View Post
We are also in the middle of flu season, we also have a pandemic and a society full of hypochondriac's that will suck any drug the TV tells them they need.

Labs are already overloaded as you said, so shall we test every Tom, Dick and Harry that walks in the door with flu symptoms? There are limited numbers of tests, there is a WORLD demand right now. Protocol is to do respiratory panels, and another test before a Covid-19 test is ran in many cases.

To make the number of tests needed, just like anything else production has to be ready and raw material sourced, it all takes time and limits the capacity.

Viruses aren't a 'treat the bug' they are a 'treat the symptom.' We don't have a vaccine, and won't for some time. Unfortunately once you have it there isn't a ton you can do to treat it other than treat the symptoms, if the person gets better without the hospitalization, either they were strong enough, or it wasn't Covid-19. Either way the resources were used where they were actually needed.

Like you said, it is basically triage...

Your friend is getting better without the test, so would it really matter if she was tested?

Not trying to be cold, or an ass, but this whole thing is an "it is what it is scenario" and the only way to really do much is to let it burn out, and by limiting contact with one another is the only way to speed that up.
I don't disagree with any of that and wasn't trying to sound like I do. I was simply stating that the reality of the cases is likely drastically higher than the reported numbers that already has so many people in a panic.

I'm 100% on board with isolation, but unless we get more people to do it, it's not going to work. It'll help flatten the curve, but this thing will drag out indefinitely until another countermeasure is found and implemented. The order yesterday was a great start, but it's not widespread enough nationally(and internationally) and it's not strict enough. Too many non-essential companies still skirting or straight up breaking the rules. Hell, Truck Hero in Ann Arbor is still building freaking tonneau covers with hundreds of employees elbow to elbow in the plant and I bet there are hundreds of other examples doing the same thing.
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Old March 24th, 2020, 01:35 PM   #245
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I just did a teledoc with my cardiologist, absolutely no contact with anyone other than my wife and son. Looks like I get out of grocery shopping....
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Old March 24th, 2020, 02:20 PM   #246
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This is actually a pretty good read to help people understand the tests a little better...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...MAIumeqj7sQO6c
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Old March 24th, 2020, 02:32 PM   #247
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Originally Posted by Mihlfeldl2005 View Post
From what I've been hearing it's not the number of cases but the number of deaths we should be paying attention to. Number of cases will continue to go up as we continue to test but "flattening the curve" really relates to those cases requiring hospitalization or death.
I agree with this ^^
Obviously as it's a percentage of the total cases there is a relation, but to expect the number of cases to flatten out is illogical for the current time period

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I'm hoping the curve will start to flatten out and not follow Italy but rather China or Iran. It will if the SIP theory works.
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Old March 24th, 2020, 02:35 PM   #248
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I don't disagree with any of that and wasn't trying to sound like I do. I was simply stating that the reality of the cases is likely drastically higher than the reported numbers that already has so many people in a panic.

I'm 100% on board with isolation, but unless we get more people to do it, it's not going to work. It'll help flatten the curve, but this thing will drag out indefinitely until another countermeasure is found and implemented. The order yesterday was a great start, but it's not widespread enough nationally(and internationally) and it's not strict enough. Too many non-essential companies still skirting or straight up breaking the rules. Hell, Truck Hero in Ann Arbor is still building freaking tonneau covers with hundreds of employees elbow to elbow in the plant and I bet there are hundreds of other examples doing the same thing.
I expect roadblocks soon. Companies may issue a brightly colored placard instead of a letter for 'essential travel'. Grocery stores will probably close, providing delivery only.
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Old March 24th, 2020, 02:42 PM   #249
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I'm hoping the curve will start to flatten out and not follow Italy but rather China or Iran. It will if the SIP theory works.
Problem is, not enough have isolated and not early enough IMO. We're waiting till 3 walls are on fire to get out the garden hose and there's no fire hose in sight. Rates of new infection are likely to continue to climb steeply for weeks even after more strict and far reaching restrictions are put in place, which hasn't happened yet. We're attacking a housefire with a squirt gun so far. It took weeks just to identify that the smoke and flames were, in fact, a fire. Now we've acknowledged that it's on fire and some of us have backed away from the wall, but some of the people who backed away with us are on fire too.
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Old March 24th, 2020, 02:46 PM   #250
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I expect roadblocks soon. Companies may issue a brightly colored placard instead of a letter for 'essential travel'. Grocery stores will probably close, providing delivery only.
I hope it doesn't come to that, but frankly I'm not sure how it won't have to, especially the longer we wait.
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Old March 24th, 2020, 02:50 PM   #251
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I expect roadblocks soon. Companies may issue a brightly colored placard instead of a letter for 'essential travel'. Grocery stores will probably close, providing delivery only.
Where did the need for a letter come from? I didn't read anything about that or is this just your company being proactive in the event that it comes to that?

Also 9 news deaths today...

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Old March 24th, 2020, 02:52 PM   #252
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Where did the need for a letter come from? I didn't read anything about that or is this just your company being proactive in the event that it comes to that?

Also 9 news deaths today...

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My buddy was issued a sticker for his license, my wife told to use her badge. I'm guessing it is each entity.
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Old March 24th, 2020, 02:54 PM   #253
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My buddy was issued a sticker for his license, my wife told to use her badge. I'm guessing it is each entity.
Yep, was curious as there is nothing coming down from the state requiring identification

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Old March 24th, 2020, 03:52 PM   #254
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Yep, was curious as there is nothing coming down from the state requiring identification

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I'm confused. I thought we were "allowed" to go out if necessary? I wouldn't be going to work, but who the eff said I have to carry a letter to be out?
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Old March 24th, 2020, 03:54 PM   #255
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I'm confused. I thought we were "allowed" to go out if necessary? I wouldn't be going to work, but who the eff said I have to carry a letter to be out?
You do not. Sounds like businesses covering their asses

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Old March 24th, 2020, 03:58 PM   #256
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You do not. Sounds like businesses covering their asses

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Exactly. I have a letter from my employer.
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Old March 24th, 2020, 04:09 PM   #257
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Exactly. I have a letter from my employer.
Same
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Old March 24th, 2020, 04:59 PM   #258
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I went to work and picked up the rest of my computer equipment this morning. We are now strictly work from home. This is now mission control.

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Old March 24th, 2020, 05:26 PM   #259
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I'm not on a main road, it's paved, but not a main road. In the couple of minutes it took to walk the 300 feet to the road and back to grab the mail, I counted 7 cars going by. Sitting here listening to traffic pass, I would say that it's slightly less than normal, but not nearly what I would expect if people were taking this seriously.
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Old March 24th, 2020, 05:49 PM   #260
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I went to a giant eagle grocery store tonight and the amount of disinfectant wipes and nitrile gloves in the parking lot and exit of lot is fawking ridiculous, damn trashy ass people wonder why the world is going to hell in a hand basket.


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