coronavirus, we're all gonna die.. - Page 8 - Great Lakes 4x4. The largest offroad forum in the Midwest

Go Back   Great Lakes 4x4. The largest offroad forum in the Midwest > General 4x4 Stuff > The Pub
GL4x4 Live! GL4x4 Casino

The Pub A friendly forum where everybody is nice, and will answer any questions you have about life.

greatlakes4x4.com is the premier Great Lakes 4x4 Forum on the internet. Registered Users do not see the above ads.
Search
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old March 20th, 2020, 03:06 PM   #141
BlooMule
Old School
 
BlooMule's Avatar
 
Join Date: 11-08-05
Location: far from the shithole
Posts: 33,018
iTrader: (15)
Mentioned: 56 Post(s)
Default

So, let's say that a couple months ago, there were 20 cases, but in a week it became 2000 cases. (roughly the rate in China). There's only 2000 cases, so big deal.... or it increased a hundredfold in a week?

It's not about the total numbers, it's about the rate of increase.
__________________
-rw-rw-rw
BlooMule is offline   Reply With Quote
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
Old March 20th, 2020, 03:16 PM   #142
BlooMule
Old School
 
BlooMule's Avatar
 
Join Date: 11-08-05
Location: far from the shithole
Posts: 33,018
iTrader: (15)
Mentioned: 56 Post(s)
Default

Here's a good 8 minute video about it

http://youtu.be/BtN-goy9VOY
__________________
-rw-rw-rw
BlooMule is offline   Reply With Quote
Old March 20th, 2020, 03:54 PM   #143
brewmenn
Mr. Special Snowflake.
 
brewmenn's Avatar
 
Join Date: 11-05-05
Location: Inkster, MI
Posts: 12,950
iTrader: (9)
Mentioned: 13 Post(s)
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by whiterhino View Post
Umm I don't think so (from that article)
that at least 12,000 people have died from influenza between Oct. 1, 2019 through Feb. 1, 2020,

Is it over inflated? Maybe. I've looked at a dozen different sites. Numbers vary but not by much.

The point is, currently world wide, Covid 19 has infected less people and killed less people than influenza has in the United States.

Will it skyrocket as predicted? I don't know....... and I don't believe anyone else does either.
Right, 12,000 in 4 months would by 36,000 per year, not 300,000 - 600,000.
brewmenn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old March 20th, 2020, 05:59 PM   #144
Mihlfeldl2005
Life=Short. Jeeps=Cool
 
Mihlfeldl2005's Avatar
 
Join Date: 10-04-11
Location: Fowlerville, MI
Posts: 3,872
iTrader: (19)
Mentioned: 16 Post(s)
Send a message via Yahoo to Mihlfeldl2005 Send a message via Skype™ to Mihlfeldl2005
Default

Too perfect for this group...

Sent from my SM-G960U1 using Tapatalk
Mihlfeldl2005 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old March 20th, 2020, 08:54 PM   #145
bbaXJ
Yooper In Training
 
bbaXJ's Avatar
 
Join Date: 03-29-06
Location: Fowlertucky, MI
Posts: 7,030
iTrader: (66)
Mentioned: 35 Post(s)
Send a message via AIM to bbaXJ
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by whiterhino View Post
Which is why I've said to many people that there is something they are not telling us .......... as the "published" numbers don't add up.
Quote:
Originally Posted by brewmenn View Post
Right, 12,000 in 4 months would by 36,000 per year, not 300,000 - 600,000.
Jesus Christ would you guys PLEASE do some research on exponential growth? THIS IS NOT LINEAR. The math you guys are using is royally and completely fucked. Sorry but I don't know any other way to put it. You're both smarter than this and you've shown it before.

It's doubled in the US just in the past 2 days. Yes, some of that is due to increased testing, but that ultimately has minimal impact on the trend as a whole, it's a momentary upward blip in a continuing upward trend, getting steeper by the hour. Let's be conservative and say 1 carrier gives it to 2 people even though by all accounts that's much lower than the reality with this. We'll start with rough numbers from today: 10k known infected cases. Tomorrow that's 20k. Sunday: 40k. Monday: 80k. Tuesday: 160k. Wednesday: 320k. Thursday: 640k. Friday: 1.28million. Saturday: 2.56million. Sunday: 5.12million. Monday: 10.24million. Tuesday: 20.48million. Wednesday: 40.96million.
Now in reality the known cases is drastically lower than the real number of cases. But I'll stick with known numbers. So in 1.5 weeks with no actions we're talking 40 million infected and climbing steeply by the day. Worldwide average mortality rate is hovering just over 4% and seems to be in roughly the 2 week period from infection, maybe a little more. That's 1.6million dead in the US alone in 3.5-4 weeks, and it's still climbing very sharply from there. And that doesn't take into account additional fallout and deaths from lack of medical care, hospital beds, supplies, ventilators, etc. WE NEED TO ISOLATE. WE NEED TO TAKE AWAY THE HOSTS FOR THIS TO SPREAD TO. WE ARE ALL DIRECTLY IN THE LINE OF FIRE. I'm not one to freak out about this stuff, but this is something everybody should be taking very, very seriously. This isn't the end of the world, but it's going to change the world and the way we all look at it.

The numbers above are if we do nothing. We're already doing some, obviously, and I'm very happy we are. But it's not nearly enough, and we've got statistical data from lots of other countries to prove it.

Just read this please. It's got a tremendous amount of useful info.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...tm_name=iossmf
bbaXJ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old March 20th, 2020, 09:07 PM   #146
brewmenn
Mr. Special Snowflake.
 
brewmenn's Avatar
 
Join Date: 11-05-05
Location: Inkster, MI
Posts: 12,950
iTrader: (9)
Mentioned: 13 Post(s)
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bbaXJ View Post
Jesus Christ would you guys PLEASE do some research on exponential growth? THIS IS NOT LINEAR. The math you guys are using is royally and completely fucked. Sorry but I don't know any other way to put it. You're both smarter than this and you've shown it before.

It's doubled in the US just in the past 2 days. Yes, some of that is due to increased testing, but that ultimately has minimal impact on the trend as a whole, it's a momentary upward blip in a continuing upward trend, getting steeper by the hour. Let's be conservative and say 1 carrier gives it to 2 people even though by all accounts that's much lower than the reality with this. We'll start with rough numbers from today: 10k known infected cases. Tomorrow that's 20k. Sunday: 40k. Monday: 80k. Tuesday: 160k. Wednesday: 320k. Thursday: 640k. Friday: 1.28million. Saturday: 2.56million. Sunday: 5.12million. Monday: 10.24million. Tuesday: 20.48million. Wednesday: 40.96million.
Now in reality the known cases is drastically lower than the real number of cases. But I'll stick with known numbers. So in 1.5 weeks with no actions we're talking 40 million infected and climbing steeply by the day. Worldwide average mortality rate is hovering just over 4% and seems to be in roughly the 2 week period from infection, maybe a little more. That's 1.6million dead in the US alone in 3.5-4 weeks, and it's still climbing very sharply from there. And that doesn't take into account additional fallout and deaths from lack of medical care, hospital beds, supplies, ventilators, etc. WE NEED TO ISOLATE. WE NEED TO TAKE AWAY THE HOSTS FOR THIS TO SPREAD TO. WE ARE ALL DIRECTLY IN THE LINE OF FIRE. I'm not one to freak out about this stuff, but this is something everybody should be taking very, very seriously. This isn't the end of the world, but it's going to change the world and the way we all look at it.

The numbers above are if we do nothing. We're already doing some, obviously, and I'm very happy we are. But it's not nearly enough, and we've got statistical data from lots of other countries to prove it.

Just read this please. It's got a tremendous amount of useful info.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...tm_name=iossmf
I was merely responding to point out the error in Whiterhino's post. I agree with you 100% and understand the numbers.
brewmenn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old March 21st, 2020, 05:30 AM   #147
XXXJ
Desert Rat
 
XXXJ's Avatar
 
Join Date: 03-09-07
Location: Manistee, Mi
Posts: 6,994
iTrader: (14)
Mentioned: 10 Post(s)
Default

Shameless cut and paste

Quote:

Coronavirus Science made simple:

Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this to others who don’t understand...

It has to do with RNA sequencing.... I.e. genetics.

Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.

Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.

Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, thats what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be..

H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.

Fast forward.

Now, here comes this Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”

This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.

And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs..

That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.

We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.

Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him, till the Black Plague passed...(honestly...I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation...

And let me end by saying....right now it’s hitting older folks harder... but this genome is so slippery...if it mutates again (and it will). Who is to say, what it will do next.

Be smart folks... acting like you’re unafraid is so not sexy right now.

#flattenthecurve. Stay home folks... and share this to those that just are not catching on.

Last edited by XXXJ; March 21st, 2020 at 05:34 AM.
XXXJ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old March 21st, 2020, 05:32 AM   #148
whiterhino
I'm not old, honest...
 
whiterhino's Avatar
 
Join Date: 03-07-06
Location: Davisburg MI
Posts: 30,053
iTrader: (26)
Mentioned: 175 Post(s)
Default

I understand the numbers.
I understand exponential growth.
I understand the risk.

Everything published is based on known cases. Or in the case of the article posted by bbaXJ, a prediction of unknown cases, which means they are also predictions.

Is it worth destroying the global economy for years to come? Time will tell....................

And yes, we are taking all precautions we can. Don't let me misrepresent - I am not ignoring this. I'm just trying to understand it.

Last edited by whiterhino; March 21st, 2020 at 05:35 AM.
whiterhino is offline   Reply With Quote
Old March 21st, 2020, 05:46 AM   #149
XXXJ
Desert Rat
 
XXXJ's Avatar
 
Join Date: 03-09-07
Location: Manistee, Mi
Posts: 6,994
iTrader: (14)
Mentioned: 10 Post(s)
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by whiterhino View Post
I understand the numbers.
I understand exponential growth.
I understand the risk.

Everything published is based on known cases. Or in the case of the article posted by bbaXJ, a prediction of unknown cases, which means they are also predictions.

Is it worth destroying the global economy for years to come? Time will tell....................
I understand the theory.
If everyone freezes where they are for two weeks, this thing can burn itself out.
I guess it’s like backfiring.

Someone flew it by Trump as option “D”. He went for it.
Pretty fawking risky. I’m in! It’s not like I have a choice. But I’m in.

I hear National Guard is going to be mobilized for manpower.
If that’s true, they should be in “full battle rattle”. That will give any looters reason to pause before throwing that brick.
XXXJ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old March 21st, 2020, 06:35 AM   #150
Mihlfeldl2005
Life=Short. Jeeps=Cool
 
Mihlfeldl2005's Avatar
 
Join Date: 10-04-11
Location: Fowlerville, MI
Posts: 3,872
iTrader: (19)
Mentioned: 16 Post(s)
Send a message via Yahoo to Mihlfeldl2005 Send a message via Skype™ to Mihlfeldl2005
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by XXXJ View Post
I understand the theory.
If everyone freezes where they are for two weeks, this thing can burn itself out.
I guess itís like backfiring.

Someone flew it by Trump as option ďDĒ. He went for it.
Pretty fawking risky. Iím in! Itís not like I have a choice. But Iím in.

I hear National Guard is going to be mobilized for manpower.
If thatís true, they should be in ďfull battle rattleĒ. That will give any looters reason to pause before throwing that brick.
National Guard is mobilizing for food distribution, water distribution, and logistical support. They will not be in "full battle rattle" and will not be aiding law enforcement.

Sent from my SM-G960U1 using Tapatalk
Mihlfeldl2005 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old March 21st, 2020, 07:15 AM   #151
whiterhino
I'm not old, honest...
 
whiterhino's Avatar
 
Join Date: 03-07-06
Location: Davisburg MI
Posts: 30,053
iTrader: (26)
Mentioned: 175 Post(s)
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bbaXJ View Post
Jesus Christ would you guys PLEASE do some research on exponential growth? THIS IS NOT LINEAR. The math you guys are using is royally and completely fucked. Sorry but I don't know any other way to put it. You're both smarter than this and you've shown it before.


Just read this please. It's got a tremendous amount of useful info.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...tm_name=iossmf
That article is good because it's compiled well. Lots of bits and pieces out there that is hard to package.

Just thought I would remind you that I was one of the first who said it was potentially serious. I still think it is. The hard part is to quantify "HOW" serious it is. My suspicion is that said and done, we will look back at it and say it was bad, but not as bad as predicted.


Quote:
Originally Posted by whiterhino View Post
I believe it's serious. Panic serious, no but never the less, serious. The fatality rate appears to be higher than the typical flu by a factor of 10. Still pretty small numbers but bigger. I believe the greater problem is the rate of expansion once it hits an area. The emergency centers aren't prepared for how quickly it can spread. This is why attempting to slow it down and widen out the bell curve makes sense.

For those skeptics who say it is all media and the dems trying to destroy Trump, there are billions of dollars being lost over this. None of these big companies, pro sports or NCAA sports are shutting down just to fukc Trump. Nor is Trump closing the border because he is afraid of the dems. Not to mention the stories coming out of Italy.

It's serious and may very well be being over hyped. The difficult problem is - what if it's not? It's far better to be over cautious and say OOPS than watch the population die and say OOPS.
whiterhino is offline   Reply With Quote
Old March 21st, 2020, 07:22 AM   #152
Zjman
Senior Member
 
Join Date: 03-28-14
Location: Corning, ohio
Posts: 366
iTrader: (1)
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Default

The only reason why it probably wonít be as bad as predicted is because we are taking the right precautions now. Thereís gotta be some retired folk or just about to retire folk that are on suicide watch. Their 401kís were desimated in two weeks, hopefully most transferred their funds early. This is gonna hurt us all finally before itís over


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
Zjman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old March 21st, 2020, 07:33 AM   #153
bbaXJ
Yooper In Training
 
bbaXJ's Avatar
 
Join Date: 03-29-06
Location: Fowlertucky, MI
Posts: 7,030
iTrader: (66)
Mentioned: 35 Post(s)
Send a message via AIM to bbaXJ
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewmenn View Post
I was merely responding to point out the error in Whiterhino's post. I agree with you 100% and understand the numbers.
Ah, gotcha. I read your post as agreeing and downplaying the potential numbers. Misunderstanding on my part. I was surprised to see that from you, so makes more sense now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by whiterhino View Post
I understand the numbers.
I understand exponential growth.
I understand the risk.

Everything published is based on known cases. Or in the case of the article posted by bbaXJ, a prediction of unknown cases, which means they are also predictions.

Is it worth destroying the global economy for years to come? Time will tell....................

And yes, we are taking all precautions we can. Don't let me misrepresent - I am not ignoring this. I'm just trying to understand it.
That's all good to hear. I still see too many people downplaying and dismissing it. I'm NOT in panic mode and I've approached this logically from day one, but I still get frustrated when I see people putting their blinders on and putting all of us at risk. Glad you're not one of them.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mihlfeldl2005 View Post
National Guard is mobilizing for food distribution, water distribution, and logistical support. They will not be in "full battle rattle" and will not be aiding law enforcement.

Sent from my SM-G960U1 using Tapatalk
Makes sense. I assume this is more of a "shelter in place" where people can still go out for essential supplies and whatnot and not a full lockdown quarantine? Still makes sense that supplies and help would be needed in population-dense and low income areas like inner cities. We're fairly well stocked at my crib, but I'll lose my goddamn mind if we end up in a full lockdown.....but I really don't see a way that could be realistically expected let alone enforced.

Quote:
Originally Posted by whiterhino View Post
That article is good because it's compiled well. Lots of bits and pieces out there that is hard to package.

Just thought I would remind you that I was one of the first who said it was potentially serious. I still think it is. The hard part is to quantify "HOW" serious it is. My suspicion is that said and done, we will look back at it and say it was bad, but not as bad as predicted.
Yes, it's hard to quantify for sure. There's one of two ways we'll look back at it in the future:
1: "Holy shit that almost ended us. That was BAD." That'll mean we didn't do enough or didn't do it early enough.
2: "That didn't get that bad. WTF was all the fuss about? We destroyed our economy for THAT?" I hope this is the case, because that'll mean the measures and actions did in fact work in order to prevent #1. There will just be a lot of people too shortsighted and ignorant to understand that.
bbaXJ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old March 21st, 2020, 07:38 AM   #154
Mihlfeldl2005
Life=Short. Jeeps=Cool
 
Mihlfeldl2005's Avatar
 
Join Date: 10-04-11
Location: Fowlerville, MI
Posts: 3,872
iTrader: (19)
Mentioned: 16 Post(s)
Send a message via Yahoo to Mihlfeldl2005 Send a message via Skype™ to Mihlfeldl2005
Default

No stay-at-home order had been given for Michigan. Whitmer addressed it last night that it's not off the table, but the situation wild have to get significantly worse for it to be ordered. It would likely look much like San Francisco's order which is basically asking people to comply with the executive order. It's not going to be Italy where they've got military patrolling the streets.

Sent from my SM-G960U1 using Tapatalk
Mihlfeldl2005 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old March 21st, 2020, 09:14 AM   #155
bbaXJ
Yooper In Training
 
bbaXJ's Avatar
 
Join Date: 03-29-06
Location: Fowlertucky, MI
Posts: 7,030
iTrader: (66)
Mentioned: 35 Post(s)
Send a message via AIM to bbaXJ
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mihlfeldl2005 View Post
No stay-at-home order had been given for Michigan. Whitmer addressed it last night that it's not off the table, but the situation wild have to get significantly worse for it to be ordered. It would likely look much like San Francisco's order which is basically asking people to comply with the executive order. It's not going to be Italy where they've got military patrolling the streets.

Sent from my SM-G960U1 using Tapatalk
I know it hasn't been, I just feel that it's only a matter of time. And honestly I think sooner would be much better than later. The longer we wait, the worse the numbers will be and the longer it'll have to last.

I figured it'll be more like what's already implemented elsewhere in the US, but thought you're probably a bit more in the know since you're National Guard IIRC.
bbaXJ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old March 21st, 2020, 09:16 AM   #156
aber61
Senior Member
 
aber61's Avatar
 
Join Date: 09-22-08
Location: Commerce Twp. Michigan
Posts: 8,657
iTrader: (3)
Mentioned: 29 Post(s)
Default

Facts and numbers.

https://www.justfactsdaily.com/vital...CejCZKJxt9FcSg
aber61 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old March 21st, 2020, 10:39 AM   #157
aber61
Senior Member
 
aber61's Avatar
 
Join Date: 09-22-08
Location: Commerce Twp. Michigan
Posts: 8,657
iTrader: (3)
Mentioned: 29 Post(s)
Default

https://dailycaller.com/2020/03/20/w...virus-warning/

Is this looking like an attack against the world by China?
aber61 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old March 21st, 2020, 02:32 PM   #158
JohnnyJ
Low Range Drifter
 
JohnnyJ's Avatar
 
Join Date: 11-09-05
Location: Hartland, MI
Posts: 8,091
iTrader: (38)
Mentioned: 90 Post(s)
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by aber61 View Post
https://dailycaller.com/2020/03/20/w...virus-warning/

is this looking like an attack against the world by china?
no.
JohnnyJ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old March 21st, 2020, 02:35 PM   #159
JohnnyJ
Low Range Drifter
 
JohnnyJ's Avatar
 
Join Date: 11-09-05
Location: Hartland, MI
Posts: 8,091
iTrader: (38)
Mentioned: 90 Post(s)
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by aber61 View Post
How about?

Michigan:
https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus...0743--,00.html

US:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
JohnnyJ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old March 21st, 2020, 02:44 PM   #160
wrath
Project Antitube
 
wrath's Avatar
 
Join Date: 11-09-05
Location: Chelsea, MI
Posts: 871
iTrader: (2)
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Send a message via AIM to wrath
Default

If a bunch of Boomers die, maybe I can afford some vacation property upnort dere.
wrath is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply
Great Lakes 4x4. The largest offroad forum in the Midwest > General 4x4 Stuff > The Pub

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 09:07 AM.


Powered by: vBulletin, Copyright ©2000 - 2012, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
User Alert System provided by Advanced User Tagging (Lite) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2020 DragonByte Technologies Ltd. Runs best on HiVelocity Hosting.
vBulletin Security provided by vBSecurity v2.2.2 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2020 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
 
Page generated in 0.63946 seconds with 86 queries