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Old June 16th, 2008, 10:55 AM   #1
JohnnyJ
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Default I am so smart - S-M-R-T

A few weeks ago I posted this:

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Originally Posted by JohnnyJ View Post
I feel that it's because it's tied to speculation and not market conditions.

Reports that I've seen is that short-term demand is down for gas because of the faltering econonomy and high prices. The market's answer: oil prices are up

Oil prices drop, and short-term demand is still down, but prices are still going up. eh? From the looks of it, the summer driving season is going to be way down.. just look at how busy the roads were over the past weekend.

My version of the economic history of the 2000s:

Speculators were making money hand over fist with Y2K as the internet boom was wrapping up. That bubble popped in mid-Y2K and investors needed a new outlet.

Mortgage rates plummeted as they tried to prop up the economy post 9/11/2001 and speculators saw that they could rake it in buying and selling crap homes at big markups with minimal costs as people bought more than they could afford.

That bubble has popped, and now they need a new market to make money on. With all of the greeen talk, people are moving towards energy investments. Speculators are cashing in on oil futures, and nothing's being done to slow it down since everybody is making money (private investment, corporations like exxon, and the gov't through tax revenue). You see it other energy areas with E85 speculation rampant as venture capital is trying to open up refineries, and corn prices are waaaay high for the small increase in E85 demand.

So, this will pop at some point. Probably be about 3-5 years and they'll tap it out, leave it for dead, and move on to the next hot item. By then everybody will be driving micro-cars, gas prices will drop, and a small group will start buying bigger vehicles, kinda like in the late 80s, early 90s with the advent of the Ford Explorer.
And today I saw this article where an expert agreed with me. My big question is whether or not he used my post as his research.

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker...Investor-Herro

Quote:
Energy Bubble Will Burn Bulls Just Like Tech Did, Says Top Investor Herro
Posted Jun 16, 2008 07:30am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities
Related: XLF, XLE, GM, F, OIL, USO, DUG
David Herro, Harris Associates' chief investment officer (international) wasn't named one of SmartMoney's "World's Greatest Investors" of 2007 by following the crowd.

So it's probably no surprise Herro is betting against the herd's current fixation on commodities. Herro, who oversees about $20 billion in assets, believes commodities are a bubble ripe for popping, with oil most vulnerable to a big downtown.

Supply/demand fundamentals simply don't support oil at current prices, he says, predicting crude will tumble back into the $60-$80 per barrel range in the next 24 months.

And just like tech fans in the early part of the 2000s, energy bulls will get burned, he says.
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Old June 16th, 2008, 10:59 AM   #2
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How many contracts of August oil are you holding on the down side?

I almost forgot





AP
Oil hits record near $140 a barrel on dollar, fire
Monday June 16, 9:41 am ET
By John Wilen, AP Business Writer
Oil futures shoot to a record near $140 a barrel on falling dollar, North Sea fire


NEW YORK (AP) -- Crude oil futures hit a record close to $140 a barrel Monday as the dollar weakened against the euro. Retail gas prices rose to a record $4.08 a gallon
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Old June 16th, 2008, 05:41 PM   #3
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That is why I am sitting on top of a huge investment in a natural gas exploration company out in the Wyoming/Utah area. Investors are pushing money into anything they can find associated with possible energy sources. It's nice to see the retirement account climb by $2000 a few days a week.
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Old June 16th, 2008, 05:58 PM   #4
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im putting all my money into front axle yolk fusion energy recirculation flux capacitors
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Old June 25th, 2008, 01:27 AM   #5
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Old June 25th, 2008, 01:33 AM   #6
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prices are high because for some reason its legal to buy futures in commodities. what were they thinking!
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Old June 25th, 2008, 05:34 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by muddin_wolverine View Post
prices are high because for some reason its legal to buy futures in commodities. what were they thinking!
I'm sitting on 5 August contracts.
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Old June 27th, 2008, 12:57 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnnyJ View Post
A few weeks ago I posted this:



And today I saw this article where an expert agreed with me. My big question is whether or not he used my post as his research.

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker...Investor-Herro



Oil near new high above $142 as equities wilt
Friday June 27, 11:30 am ET
By Jane Merriman and Santosh Menon


LONDON (Reuters) - Oil held near a record high of more than $142 a barrel on Friday, extending gains after surging nearly 4 percent in the previous session, as tumbling global stock markets helped to trigger a wider commodities rally.



ARE YOU BROKE YET ?
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Old June 27th, 2008, 02:49 PM   #9
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Latest Update: Oil up again





Reuters
Oil hits record near $143 on rising investor flows
Friday June 27, 1:57 pm ET


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices rose to a record near $143 a barrel on Friday as a drop in global equities markets sent fresh investors into commodities.
U.S. crude was up $3.11 at $142.75 a barrel by 1:04 p.m. EDT after touching a record high of $142.93 earlier. London Brent crude was $2.91 higher at $142.74 a barrel, after hitting a peak of $142.91.
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Old June 28th, 2008, 11:54 AM   #10
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it will crash
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