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Old August 23rd, 2012, 04:42 PM   #1
aber61
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Default We Have a Winner!!!!!

According to two liberal political professors, we have a predicted winner

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/0...n_1822933.html
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Old August 23rd, 2012, 04:51 PM   #2
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On NPR this morning they predicted that Obama had less than a 1 in 10 chance of being re elected. I was stunned when I heard them say that on National Propeganda Radio.
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Old August 23rd, 2012, 09:12 PM   #3
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Pretty meaningless this far out. Porobably just a plot to motivate the troups.
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Old August 24th, 2012, 08:10 AM   #4
WSU JK
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Quote:
Ken Bickers from CU-Boulder and Michael Berry from CU-Denver, the two political science professors who devised the prediction model, say that it has correctly forecast every winner of the electoral race since 1980.
That's pretty easy to do after the fact. I can develop a statistical model to predict anything correctly after it has already happened as well.

Their model also does not penalize Republican candidates at all for specific economic conditions but gives absolutely enormous penalties to Democrat candidates for those same variables.
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Old August 24th, 2012, 08:58 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WSU JK View Post
That's pretty easy to do after the fact. I can develop a statistical model to predict anything correctly after it has already happened as well.
for some reason, I am picturing using excel's "add trend line - 6 order polynomial" to a graph as the simplest post-fact statistical model



as for the matter at hand - I honestly don't think either candidate winning, is a win for the American people.
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