100% from the filter. Not sure what filter you're using, but if its a cheap non-multicoat flat filter, it will do that. Look for a meniscus shaped multicoat which will totally remove reflectiosn or don't use one at all.
I went through this same issue. Started with a $5.99 "ebay" uv filter which was a big mistake. then switched to a multicoat sigma ex dg, then the problem almost went away, but I still catch some slight reflections when I have extremely dark areas mixed with extremely bright areas, just like you have in that photo above.
I've chose to just use my hood as protection, and the problem is gone.