MI Gov: DeVos leads Granholm by 8% in first election poll of the year.

[clarkstoncracker]

Incumbents RARELY are down in the first polls against their competition.

What I find very very odd, is that granholm is LOSING in Wayne county, but WINNING in Oakland county..


__________________________________________________ ____________________



Exclusive Poll: DeVos Leads Granholm in Governor Race

By 7 Action News
June 12, 2006

As the race for Michigan governor heats up, the results are in on the first of our exclusive Channel 7/Detroit News polls. Early statewide polling shows challenger Dick DeVos with a lead over Governor Jennifer Granholm.

600 likely Michigan voters were polled about the governor’s race and other issues facing the state. The poll was conducted between June 5 and June 9, 2006. Polling was done for Action News by EPIC/MRA.

All poll results carry a margin of error of +/- 4.0%.

When asked how they would rate the job being done by Jennifer Granholm as Governor, respondents said:

10% excellent
30% pretty good
40% Total POSITIVE

38% just fair
21% poor
59% Total NEGATIVE

1% undecided / don’t know / refused

If the election for governor were held today, respondents said they would vote for:

35% Jennifer Granholm
5% lean toward Granholm
40% Total GRANHOLM

39% Dick DeVos
9% lean toward DeVos
48% Total DEVOS

12% undecided / don’t know / refused

If the election for governor were held today, Detroiters who were surveyed said they would vote for:

59% Granholm
29% DeVos

If the election for governor were held today, Wayne County residents, excluding Detroit, who were surveyed said they would vote for:

38% Granholm
51% DeVos

If the election for governor were held today, Oakland County residents who were surveyed said they would vote for:

48% Granholm
43% DeVos

[Lothos]

Pahleese. 600 people polled across 3 counties AND detroit? that leaves what, 150 people in each to be a barometer for the entire county? Poll over 1000 people in each and then we can start making aSSumptions.

While I'm personally for DeVos, I want to know what he's going to do to replace our SBT that he so vehemently wants to eliminate. Michigan HAS a single business tax because it was less headache to lump all the little BS taxes businesses have to pay into one lump sum rather than continue with the paperwork bull other states for some reason feel the need to continue doing.

[84Scrambler]

If you read the story in today's Lansing State Urinal, both campaigns agree that the EPIC/MRA poll is incorrect. Even the Devos camp is claiming it to be a deadheat currently. But, here we go again with a choice for the lesser of 2 evils...

[ScOoTeR]

Originally Posted by 84Scrambler

But, here we go again with a choice for the lesser of 2 evils...

With Devos, maybe we can stop getting Canadian trash shipped here. :tonka:

[Mclovin]

Ive heard devos is no good but i dont want granholm back in office thats for sure !

[Lothos]

The difference is Granholm will screw you and tell you first, DeVos will screw you and not tell you at all.


The problem is, this state needs a backbone industry influx and we simply have none to get. Ideally we should shift to more of a tourism based state I think and utilize the resources we have. The stability a tourism base provides in a non-hurricane state is unprecedented.

[clarkstoncracker]

Originally Posted by Muddinguy

Ive heard devos is no good but i dont want granholm back in office thats for sure !

Wow, aren't you the little politician.


Why don't you state whats wrong with DeVos?

I'm interested in hearing this.

[Tie Dyed]

Originally Posted by clarkstoncracker

Why don't you state whats wrong with DeVos?

I'm interested in hearing this.

My biggest problem, is that he supports vouchers. Parents can pull their kids out of public schools, and then take the money that the state gives them, to the private school.

[RyeBread]

Originally Posted by Lothos

Pahleese. 600 people polled across 3 counties AND detroit? that leaves what, 150 people in each to be a barometer for the entire county? Poll over 1000 people in each and then we can start making aSSumptions.

While I'm personally for DeVos, I want to know what he's going to do to replace our SBT that he so vehemently wants to eliminate. Michigan HAS a single business tax because it was less headache to lump all the little BS taxes businesses have to pay into one lump sum rather than continue with the paperwork bull other states for some reason feel the need to continue doing.

actually, one of the reasons the SBT was put in place was to provide a stable revenue base during times of drastc changes in the economy.

[Lothos]

Originally Posted by RyeBread

actually, one of the reasons the SBT was put in place was to provide a stable revenue base during times of drastc changes in the economy.

where do you get that info from? you have to have businesses to tax and a stable economy to have a stable tax revenue.

[Lothos]

Originally Posted by Tie Dyed

My biggest problem, is that he supports vouchers. Parents can pull their kids out of public schools, and then take the money that the state gives them, to the private school.

I dont have a problem with the vouchers IFF the private school that redeems the voucher funding meets the state mandated testing requirements and whatnot just like public schools. The state required curriculum needs to be taught as well.

[RyeBread]

Originally Posted by Lothos

where do you get that info from? you have to have businesses to tax and a stable economy to have a stable tax revenue.

for the most part, businesses ride out the historical annual swings in the economy.

if the tax was profit based, an accounting "loss" and/or one bad year can effectively wipe out the state's tax revenue. Since most of our government has to budget based on forecasts, and quite a bit of our government utilizes a 2 year budget it created issues, especially when the constitution mandated a balanced budget.

at the time that the SBT was implemented, much of the economy could be in the shitter, yet the Big 3, being headquarted here, and having much of their employment/infrastructure based here were riding out a year, or two's economic downswing, it provided a relatively stable tax base to forecast with.

I didnt' state that it was successful in it's implementation, only that it was one of the goals of the SBT.

My curiousity with this state's tax base centers around the future of the property tax system. Our very own "proposal A" was modelled on California's proposition 13, which, when combined with an economic downturn in California essentially bankrupted several counties, as well as caused severe budget issues for the state government.

To date, while property values have stagnated, we haven't seen actual statistical evidence of a HUGE loss in property values (yet). When we do, just about everyone will be appealing their property's assessed, and taxable values (this is more important when looked at from the commercial/industrial sector).

Once reduced on appeal (and most full tribunals that have market value evidence prevail) it will permanently alter the property tax base in this state, since it can't be "rolled forward" when economic times improve due to the statutory constraints on the rate of increases for taxable value.

This will further have an impact on the competitiveness of someone attempting to establish a new business here, as purchases get uncapped, as well as new builds - however, a business that is long established is "capped" unless they improve the property. The result is, that new businesses will demand tax abatements to relocate to Michigan. (something that has already long been a problem)

(editor's note: the author is currently still a certified State of Michigan Level 3 Property tax assessor, even tho he hasn't signed an actual assessment roll in over 15 years)

[Lothos]

Originally Posted by RyeBread

for the most part, businesses ride out the historical annual swings in the economy.

if the tax was profit based, an accounting "loss" and/or one bad year can effectively wipe out the state's tax revenue. Since most of our government has to budget based on forecasts, and quite a bit of our government utilizes a 2 year budget it created issues, especially when the constitution mandated a balanced budget.

at the time that the SBT was implemented, much of the economy could be in the shitter, yet the Big 3, being headquarted here, and having much of their employment/infrastructure based here were riding out a year, or two's economic downswing, it provided a relatively stable tax base to forecast with.

I didnt' state that it was successful in it's implementation, only that it was one of the goals of the SBT.

My curiousity with this state's tax base centers around the future of the property tax system. Our very own "proposal A" was modelled on California's proposition 13, which, when combined with an economic downturn in California essentially bankrupted several counties, as well as caused severe budget issues for the state government.

To date, while property values have stagnated, we haven't seen actual statistical evidence of a HUGE loss in property values (yet). When we do, just about everyone will be appealing their property's assessed, and taxable values (this is more important when looked at from the commercial/industrial sector).

Once reduced on appeal (and most full tribunals that have market value evidence prevail) it will permanently alter the property tax base in this state, since it can't be "rolled forward" when economic times improve due to the statutory constraints on the rate of increases for taxable value.

This will further have an impact on the competitiveness of someone attempting to establish a new business here, as purchases get uncapped, as well as new builds - however, a business that is long established is "capped" unless they improve the property. The result is, that new businesses will demand tax abatements to relocate to Michigan. (something that has already long been a problem)

(editor's note: the author is currently still a certified State of Michigan Level 3 Property tax assessor, even tho he hasn't signed an actual assessment roll in over 15 years)

you had me up to that last paragraph :) Elimination of the SBT though still requires a replacement equivilent of that budgetted money.

[RyeBread]

Originally Posted by Lothos

you had me up to that last paragraph :) Elimination of the SBT though still requires a replacement equivilent of that budgetted money.

the editor's note? :)

:) and yes, all, or part of those funds will need to be replaced. that fact that proponents of elminating the SBT haven't put forth a concrete plan to do so is worrisome.

this singular reason is also one of the major reasons why the elimination of business personal property tax hasn't ever been seriously threatened. (it accounts for approximately 1/6th of the total property tax revenue in this state as of a couple of years ago when I last prepared an analysis for the county executive/ and OMB...

[brewmenn]

Originally Posted by clarkstoncracker

Why don't you state whats wrong with DeVos?

I'm interested in hearing this.

I'm still in the 12% undecided, but what I've been told in "wrong" about DeVos is that he's very much the type of person that will make decisions based on whats best for him, his freinds, and thier businesses, and doesn't give a crap about the common man.

[brewmenn]

What i found even more suprizing was that, according ot todays Detroit News, There is slightly more support for DeVos in union households than non union.

[DuffMan]

he supports vouchers. Parents can pull their kids out of public schools, and then take the money that the state gives them, to the private school.

Welcome to competition - just like everyone else.

[RyeBread]

Originally Posted by DuffMan

Welcome to competition - just like everyone else.

so the question boils down to. Is the non-profit school system efficiently educating our kids, or will a for profit private school system maximize profits, and in turn allow some educational opportunities to slip?

I have personally seen abuses, and negligence on both sides, but feel that at least with the public/non-profit system, that the tax payers (if they wanted to) can not only get involved, but actively participate in an over sight capacity.

private, for profit firms don't have to open their books, business practices, or even listen to complaints from the public at large if they choose not to...

[Just a Spouse]

The idea of competition for educating children is good, but the downside is that public schools must take any type of child. Whether they have behavorial issues, social issues, physical issues, etc. If enough people pull their kids out of public schools along with their dollars, it could turn into a case where the only kids in public schools are those with social, economic, or other issues and there will be next to no money to pay for their extra services in education, so then what?

Right now, part of school funding pays for helping the disadvantaged with services they need, and I for one, don't mind that, but I don't know for sure if that will go away if we have a voucher system.

Yeah, I know its easy to say f-them, who cares.... let their families pay for their special services, but many families with special needs kids struggle. Special need children typically cost more to raise.